What Afghanistan's Win Over Australia Means For India's Semi-final Hopes

The Afghanistan cricket team secured its first-ever victory against Australia, in any format of the game, beating the former champions by 21 runs in the Super 8 round of the T20 World Cup 2024. Generally considered as a side with world-class spinners, it was the pace bowling unit that led Afghanistan to victory this time, with Gulbadin Naib claiming 4 wickets, producing the Player of the Match show. While Afghanistan kept their semi-final hopes alive with the win, the result also gave their Super 8 Group a big twist.

As things stand at the moment, India are top of the Super 8 Group 1 with two wins in two matches. Australia and Afghanistan have won one game apiece from their two matches while Bangladesh have lost both of their games.

What Afghanistan's win against Australia means for India and the Super 8 Group 1:

Australia (NRR of +0.223), who are next to face India in the Super 8s, now have a must-win clash ahead of them as a defeat against Rohit Sharma's men could be curtains for them in the T20 World Cup 2024. If Australia suffer a defeat against India and Afghanistan beat Bangladesh in their next match, the Afghans will be through to the semi-finals alongside India, and Australia will be knocked out.

For India, a victory against Australia would confirm their progression but a defeat can make things a little tricky, especially if the margin of loss is a big one. India's Net Run Rate of +2.425 is an incredibly strong one. But, in cricket, you never say never.

For Afghanistan (-0.650), a win against Bangladesh is a must if they are to qualify for the semi-finals. A loss could also be enough if the margin of defeat for the Afghans is a small one. But, in that scenario, India would need to beat Australia by a big margin to give Afghanistan the push on the basis of Net Run Rate.

For Bangladesh, it is an unrealistic picture as they haven't won a single game in the Super 8s. The Bangla Tigers have their Net Run Rate at -2.489. They don't just need to beat Afghanistan by a huge margin in the next game but also hope that India too beat Australia by quite a big margin. A practically, impossible situation, hence.