Why the BJP took a hit in Uttar Pradesh

The state is single-handedly responsible for bringing the party’s national tally down.

Why the BJP took a hit in Uttar Pradesh

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Uttar Pradesh powered Narendra Modi’s meteoric rise on the national stage in 2014. A decade later, it is cutting him down to size.

In 2014, the Bharatiya Janata Party had won a landslide victory in India’s most politically influential state, winning 71 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats. To put this in perspective: its tally in the 2009 election was 10.

Even in 2019, despite the two main regional parties coming together in an alliance, the BJP substantially held on to its gains, winning 62 seats.

But 2024 has proved to be a reality check.

As of 5 pm on June 4, the BJP was leading in only 36 seats in Uttar Pradesh.

The state is single-handedly responsible for bringing down the party’s national tally – at 5 pm, the BJP had won 21 seats and was leading in 221 seats. This comes to a total of 244 seats, which is 28 seats short of the halfway mark in the Lok Sabha. With the BJP now dependent on allies, it might put the prime minister’s ambition of getting a third term in the danger zone.

So what went wrong for the BJP in Uttar Pradesh?

A detailed analysis will have to await the full numbers. But here are some factors we observed on the...

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