Opinion: After The Pakistan Train Terror: Is This Just The Beginning?

The whole episode was like something from a Wild West movie, complete with a desert landscape and heavily armed fighters. In fact, it was a very professionally managed train hijack—no small task at any time—and executed with military precision, with women and children released immediately, and explicit statements by Pakistani soldiers released as “prisoners of war”. That says something about the group. It also says a lot about the future trajectory. This is serious. And despite the Pakistan army declaring that the operation is over, it is not. This is only the beginning.

The Unfolding Drama

The details of the drama have now been telecast across screens, with the attackers themselves putting out a video of the whole saga. The Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) is no ordinary insurgent group. Honed by decades of violence against its people, it is a group that is ready for a fight to death. That happens when one has nothing to lose. The Pakistani state has taken away their land, their freedoms, their children and their health—half of Baloch children are malnourished—even while the state benefits from their abundant natural resources, particularly oil and gas. 

The Jaffar Express, with its over 400 passengers, was travelling from Quetta in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa through the Punjab heartland, towards Peshawar, and was carrying a contingent of Pakistan army personnel. It was nothing unusual; the line is used often to move the personnel between provinces during the 30-hour journey. The train has, therefore, been a target earlier as well, one of the most recent incidents being a suicide attack in November 2024. But what was impressive about this hijack was the controlled nature of the attack, with civilians released in batches, and hostages separated quickly and apparently taken elsewhere, also in batches. Reliable reports indicate that most civilians were not ‘rescued' by the Pakistan army but in fact let off by the BLA, reaching the nearest railway station of Panir on foot. There is also no evidence that any civilians were targeted. Reportedly, however, some 200 coffins arrived at the station. Officials at the site said that 19 military passengers were killed, including one police and one railway official.

The Pak Army's Story

Army officials briefing the press after the hijack declared that four soldiers and 21 civilians were killed. They also claimed that the siege had ended, squarely blaming the Taliban ‘interim government' for the attack. It also declared that the operation had ended and 33 terrorists were killed in total. 

The BLA, however, denies this, saying intense fighting continued long after the hijack, and that it suffered several casualties. Certainly, it is unlikely that in such a professional attack, the insurgent would simply sit and wait to be executed. 

Meanwhile, other attacks both preceded and followed the hijack, all against Pakistani army installations as well as the Frontier Corps outpost in the Jandola of Tank district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). Such attacks are now a daily occurrence; Pakistani think tanks have reported that there was a 40% rise in terrorist attacks last year, with more than 685 soldiers killed.

All this lends veracity to warnings given by people like Maulana Fazlur Rehman, who said in Parliament that parts of Balochistan and KP were out of the control of the Pakistan army. Former Chief Minister Akhtar Mengal went even further, saying ‘not an inch' of the land was under the state's control.

Same Old Threats?

What is next? As the army warns that the ‘rules of the game have changed' look out for the following.

One, a storm of violence raining down upon the hapless Baloch people, with no one spared. China will back such actions, having already announced its 'strong support' for Pakistan. Beijing anyway has been pressing Pakistan to allow Chinese troops to be stationed on the ground, which Islamabad—with some sense—has been refuting. That might change now.

Second, expect that Rawalpindi will attack Afghanistan with all available means, conventional and unconventional. That could include using parts of the Islamic State, which Pakistan, with its traditional jihadi play, supports selectively. At the UN, the Taliban have complained that ‘certain countries' are acting vindictively against them, even as Pakistan's Permanent Representative accused the Taliban of sheltering all manners of terrorists. There is also the significant accusation that the BLA is being trained by al Qaeda and the Islamic State. That is an allegation that could cost the Baloch international sympathy. In a vindication of Trump's accusations of a ‘deep state', this particular charge is being parroted across the internet by some curious handles. 

The truth is that the BLA has nothing in common with al Qaeda or ISIS. But Rawalpindi will still try to paint it as such. It has much to gain, after all. That includes ‘fixing' an uncooperative Kabul, and funds flowing again if the US returns either into or on the borders of Afghanistan. That ultimately means Pakistani intelligence and airfields for hire.

Here's the crux of the whole thing: there has never been a train hijack in living memory in recent years. That means the BLA now gets the international spotlight. Whether or not that is a good thing depends on international sympathy. As of now, the indomitable Mehrang Baloch has been nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025. Another two fighters for Baloch rights, Mama Qadeer Baloch and Nargis Baloch, have been nominated for the Nelson Mandela Peace Prize, a huge honour at any level. Slowly but surely, the Baloch cause is gaining recognition in international circles. Pakistan could come under pressure to give them some rights. However, so far, its fall-back option is the usual one: accuse everyone else and get what it wants the most, world attention and funds. Given the depressing repetition of policy, that might even just happen. But the Baloch story is not over. All of this will only add fuel to the fire. 

(Tara Kartha is a former director of the National Security Council Secretariat)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author