Interview: How will El Niño affect the monsoon in India?

After a season of intense heatwaves, India will not have a lot of respite this monsoon, with the India Meteorological Department forecasting a “below normal” monsoon season.

On May 29, the India Meteorological Department further downgraded its monsoon forecast to 90% of the long-period average as against the earlier 92%, and forecast a warmer June.

One reason will be an El Niño brewing in the Pacific Ocean that can lead to a weak monsoon. There are concerns about this year experiencing a “super El Niño” event beginning in the second half and stretching on to early next year.

El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the global ocean atmospheric phenomenon El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a powerful atmospheric-ocean phenomenon.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration describes the phenomenon as follows: “During normal conditions in the Pacific ocean, trade winds blow west along the equator, taking warm water from South America towards Asia. To replace that warm water, cold water rises from the depths…. During El Niño, trade winds weaken. Warm water is pushed back east, toward the west coast of the Americas.”

El Niño is associated with increased rainfall and flooding in parts of South America, East Africa, and the southern United States; drought conditions in eastern and northern Australia, Indonesia,...

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