Why do so many not trust India’s GDP data anymore?

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Possibly the most famous tale from the ancient Greek Aesop's Fables is The Boy Who Cried Wolf. A shepherd repeatedly lies about a wolf attack. So when a real one does occur, villagers don’t believe him.

Something similar might now be happening with doubts over the Modi government’s GDP data. While the current controversy might not have a leg to stand on, it only exists because the government has played fast and loose with data for so long that Indians simply don’t trust it anymore.

Garg order

On Tuesday, the Modi’s government’s former finance secretary, Subhash Garg, argued that year-on-year economic growth from the first quarter of 2025-’26 to the first quarter of 2026-’27 was not 7.8% – the official government number – but only 2.6%.

Worse, Garg alleged that this was not an innocent mistake – it was explicit data manipulation by the Modi government to make itself look good. He claimed that the GDP figures for Q1 2025-’26 had been deliberately revised downwards so as to make the growth rate...

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