Opinion: Once Again, A Trump-Sized Fear For COP

World leaders are set to congregate in Baku, Azerbaijan, as it hosts the UN's 29th climate summit, COP29 (Conference of the Parties), from November 11 to 22. The key agenda before the Baku climate summit is to increase the scale of climate finance for developing countries. It is also being referred to as the 'climate finance COP', as its main goal is to decide how much funding should be allocated each year to help developing countries cope with climate-related costs.

This summit comes at a critical moment, as the world continues its multilateral efforts to address climate change. Since its first meeting in Berlin, Germany, in 1995, the goal of COP has been to curb global warming to below 1.5°C (2.7°F) above pre-industrial levels to avoid catastrophic damage to the planet. Sadly, the world continues to ignore this limit. There is an expectation that countries will explore more rigorous methods for emission reduction.

This dialogue is expected to be particularly challenging due to the leadership transition in the US. President-elect Donald Trump has a poor track record on climate action, having pushed for fossil fuel expansion and abandoned the Paris Agreement during his first term. He has promised to continue with the same policies during his election campaign. Let's examine the key themes on which COP29 is scheduled to deliberate at the Baku summit.

Meeting Financial Targets

The NCQG (New Collective Quantified Goal) is the main deliverable this year. It refers to the new annual climate financing target, which is intended to replace the current $100 billion pledge made in 2009, set to expire at the end of this year. This funding was provided by wealthy countries to support climate initiatives in poorer nations.

The US and other developed countries want to broaden the contributor base, but developing nations insist this is outside the NCQG's scope. Other issues include determining which countries should receive financial aid—should it be all developing nations, or only the most vulnerable—and what form that aid should take. Developing countries are keen to avoid debt financing, as this exposes them to further climate risks.

At Egypt's COP27, wealthy nations agreed to help poorer countries by bearing the costs of climate-driven disasters like extreme floods, storms, or droughts. About $660 million has been raised for the newly created Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage, based in the Philippines. Climate-vulnerable countries are expecting wealthier nations to contribute more to this fund. “The discussions on the NCQG, still debating who should receive funds, how much, and in what form—with hardly any progress in the lead-up to COP29—will make reaching an agreement a real uphill task. Hopefully, no new funds will be set up at this COP, and discussions will instead focus on mobilising the agreed funds,” says Santhosh Jayaram, Adjunct Professor of Practice at the Amrita School for Sustainable Futures, Amrita Vishwa Vidyapeetham.

The level of climate finance will directly impact the ambition reflected in the NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions) that countries are expected to submit early next year, particularly for developing nations. Developing countries are reluctant to commit to more ambitious targets without first securing clear financial support through the NCQG. “At COP28 in Dubai, it was evident that the world was off track from the targets set in Paris. COP29 is intended to secure the finance needed so that at COP30, negotiations can move forward with a new set of NDCs aligned with the agreements,” says Jayaram.

Reducing Emissions and Increasing Green Energy

As the host country, Azerbaijan has promised a range of commitments for investing in renewable energy, including a Global Energy Storage and Grids Pledge aimed at augmenting energy infrastructure and storage capabilities worldwide. The country has also made an ambitious Hydrogen Declaration and a Declaration on Reducing Methane Emissions from Organic Waste. Another initiative, the Green Digital Action Declaration, aims to reduce emissions in the information and communications sectors.

However, there is no direct reference in the agenda to a shift away from fossil fuels, which was a key issue in last year's COP28 in Dubai. The dilution of the agenda on fossil fuels is a cause for concern, particularly given Azerbaijan's vast oil resources. Other countries, including the US, Namibia, and Guyana, have also approved new areas for oil and gas production.

This is the second time that Azerbaijan, a major oil-producing nation where the world's first oil fields were developed, is hosting the summit and discussing a future without fossil fuels. Last year, Dubai's COP28 presidency saw another major petrostate host one of the largest climate conferences in the world. COP29 is also expected to formulate rules for international carbon trading, an issue that has been stalled for years. This would allow countries to trade carbon credits to meet their national climate targets. The business community will be looking for the establishment of rules that guarantee transparency and environmental integrity in projects registered under the PACM (Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism).

Fallout of a Trump Victory

Trump has been openly critical of Biden's Inflation Reduction Act, which supported the Biden administration's energy policies through tax incentives and investments in renewable energy. A second Trump presidency would likely signal a shift in US energy policy, favouring fossil fuels over renewables.
The re-election of Trump, who has previously dismissed climate change as a ‘hoax', is unlikely to be good news for COP. During his campaign, Trump announced that he might cancel all mitigation measures the US had taken under President Joe Biden after rejoining the Paris Agreement in 2021. A US exit from the 2015 accord would be a major blow to global efforts to reach net-zero emissions by 2050.

Trump has also been vocal about climate finance, calling it a ‘one-sided deal' in which developed nations bear the cost while countries like China contribute little. The fear of the US— the world's second-largest emitter— withdrawing from global climate efforts is a real concern. As the world continues to suffer from the devastating impacts of climate change, the US must reconsider its stance and take a leadership role on climate and environmental issues.

(The author is Contributing Editor, NDTV)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author