How the Israel-Iran conflict could impact India

On June 13, the Israeli military began striking what it claimed were nuclear targets and other sites in Iran, with the aim of stalling Tehran’s nuclear programme.

Iran retaliated with missile attacks on Israel. The official toll in Iran is at least 430 so far, while at least 25 persons have died in Israel.

The continued exchange of fire has led to concerns of a wider regional conflict that the United States could get drawn into. Washington is an ally of Israel and acts as a guarantor of the country’s security.

Tehran has rejected US President Donald Trump’s demand for an “unconditional surrender” and vowed to fight back.

The prevailing uncertainty has led to a spike in global oil prices. The price of benchmark Brent crude had jumped to $78 per barrel by Thursday from $69 per barrel on June 12, the day before the conflict began.

But the spike was not because of Israeli military’s strikes reportedly on the Shahran oil depot in Tehran and one of Iran’s largest refineries in Shahr Rey. These actions have little impact on Iranian energy exports.

Instead, the spike in prices primarily stem from concerns about the possible blocking of the Strait of Hormuz amid the conflict. The closure could threaten global energy security.

The chokepoint

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterbody that connects the Gulf to the Arabian Sea. In 2024, an...

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