As El Niño grows stronger, India may have to rely more on coal energy

Amidst a rise in electricity demand driven by warmer conditions in June, hydropower generation has declined, increasing India’s reliance on coal-fired power. The trend could intensify if El Niño conditions strengthen during the southwest monsoon.

An analysis published by S&P Global, an energy market intelligence firm, on July 3 said that India’s average hydropower generation in June declined by 6.3 aGW (average gigawatt) from a year earlier, even as average electricity demand increased by 24.3 aGW. The shortfall was largely offset by a 20.7 aGW increase in coal-fired generation, while solar and wind generation rose by a combined 9.4 aGW.

The trend is not confined to India.

According to the S&P Global analysis, Japan, South Korea, Bangladesh, the Philippines and Malaysia have also witnessed lower hydropower generation. However, India and Vietnam together accounted for nearly 80% of the regional decline in hydropower generation, making them the most affected countries in Asia.

“The June decline (in hydropower generation) is consistent with the expected impact of El Niño on rainfall patterns and reservoir inflows across Asia,” the analysis said and added that hydropower generation could remain below normal if El Niño conditions persist through the summer months.

The India Meteorological Department and several international weather agencies have projected the development of El Niño...

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