Quad, AUKUS members may face difficult choice: Trade with China vs US support

The return of Donald Trump as US President marks an important crossroads in the future of two emergent Indo-Pacific security frameworks: the Quad, comprising Australia, India, Japan and the United States, and AUKUS, the trilateral partnership between Australia, the UK and United States.

Both institutions played a key role in the Biden administration’s regional strategy, which placed particular emphasis on building a network of cooperation across the Indo-Pacific.

While the initial signs from key Trump administration officials have been very positive, long-standing concerns about the two institutions’ durability and effectiveness have been reignited by the actions directed against long-standing US allies and partners.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has taken the lead in highlighting the profile of both institutions by convening a Quad foreign ministers’ meeting as his first official engagement. Both he and Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth also spoke favourably of AUKUS during their confirmation hearings.
However, these events cannot be viewed in isolation.

Trump has laid out a disturbing expansionist territorial vision for America. And the new administration has already damaged its relationship with its immediate neighbours by threatening to use the weapon of punitive tariffs. Europe is divided over Trump’s demand that NATO allies spend more than twice as much on defence.

The Asian allies of the US have undoubtedly received a more...

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