Opinion: These 4 Small Nations Can Teach Something To Israel And Russia

While major powers of the world are either engaged in or worried about the two ongoing wars between Russia and Ukraine and Israel and Hamas, there are other theatres in the equally important geographies of Central Asia and the Caucasus that deserve attention and even kudos for progressing with peace. 

These regions have been facing threats from non-state actors as well as external power play, especially as Russia-China-US-Turkey and Iran look to expand their respective geographical pies. It is never easy to resolve territorial disputes when they have been entrenched in history, ethnicity, identity and emotion. But four countries have shown how it's not entirely impossible.

Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan

The two countries, which achieved independence in 1991 after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, share a 1,068-km-long disputed border. They were conquered by the Russian Empire in the 19th century from the Khanate of Kokand. Later, they were converted into conclaves of the Soviet Union, which ignored ethnic issues by superimposing the Soviet ideological imperative, thus creating only administrative borders.

Since then, the two nations have retained close ties with Russia and are part of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) as well as the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO). But this has not prevented frequent border clashes, with tensions erupting even during the SCO Summit in 2022. Ceasefires have been repeatedly negotiated and held, only to be broken by more skirmishes along contested areas. However, both sides eventually realised that only through peace could the problems be resolved; all external stakeholders helped reiterate the same message to the leadership of both countries. 

After 31 years, on March 13, President Sadyr Japarov of Kyrgyzstan and President Emomali Rahmon of Tajikistan signed an agreement on the delimitation and demarcation of the border. The treaty also encompassed and addressed the key issues of water, energy, infrastructure, road and transport, which have often been the cause of enduring conflict between the two neighbours. They also inaugurated two checkpoints for enhancing collaboration and connectivity, with the main highways of Dacha-Kapchygai-khojai-Aalo and Vorukh being treated as neutral connectivity corridors. Land exchanges were agreed to in a cordial and constructive manner too.

Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan's journey can be a lesson for others in the region in fostering regional collaboration and resolving bilateral issues by overcoming historical fault lines.

Nagorno-Karabagh War

Similarly, Armenia and Azerbaijan have fought several wars over the Nagorno-Karabagh region for decades, leading to an unstable Caucasus and intra- and extra-regional geopolitical rivalries. This conflict, too, has its roots in the Soviet period. 

Armenia depended primarily on Moscow for its security and sovereignty. It's part of the CSTO and even hosts a Russian base. On the other hand, Azerbaijan, backed by Turkey and emboldened by its own oil resources, continued to nibble into contested territory, driven by ethnic concerns. Eventually, Russia, embroiled in the war with Ukraine for over three years, had to reconfigure its priorities and acknowledge that its relationship with Ankara was geopolitically far more critical for its own strategic ends and maritime access.

The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan started in 1988 and morphed into a full-fledged war in the early 1990s, ceasing only in 1994 with a truce signed in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. This made way for nearly two decades of stability. But the frozen conflict erupted again in 2020 with the second Nagorno-Karabagh war, which gave the Azeris conclusive control of significant territory. The 2023 war was decisive when Azerbaijan annexed the contested region, leading to ethnic Armenians fleeing the area and Artsakh being dissolved. Eventually, a ceasefire ensued when Russian intervention on behalf of Armenians did not come through; this also soured the relations between the two countries. 
After that, even though heartburn and mutual recriminations continued, with the help of the leading powers, including the US, the two sides concurred to work on a peace agreement. One of the first signs of their understanding was the joint hosting of COP29 in the Azeri capital Baku, though many Armenians chose at the last minute not to attend the summit. 

This month finally, the two countries agreed upon a framework and text for a peace deal. Although some sticky points have remained, such as an amendment to the Armenian constitution and the abolition of the outdated Minsk Group and other relevant OSCE structures,  On March 16, US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz said on X after his talk with the Azeri Presidential Adviser, “We are pleased that Azerbaijan and Armenia have taken a big step forward and have agreed on a peace treaty," further adding, “We must work together to make the region more secure and prosperous”. The Armenian foreign Ministry also confirmed that the peace agreement was “ready for signing”. With fingers crossed, one could hope that the two sides will now move apace to normalise ties, ending nearly four decades of rivalry and dispute.

These are good and hopeful signs in an otherwise dysfunctional global order where neighbours, with the help of their respective benefactors, have been able to arrive at an understanding to ensure peace and development for their people. Can others follow suit?

(The author is India's former Ambassador to Jordan, Libya and Malta)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author