Like listening at the entrance of a tunnel: Why you can’t trust online reviews

Imagine a tunnel. At the end, there is either treasure or a trap. One by one, people enter this tunnel, each carrying a candle. Some candles are dim; others, by chance, shine brightly enough to reveal what’s ahead.

But those waiting outside the tunnel cannot see the path that others have taken. They only hear voices echoing back from inside. And here is the twist: people shout only when they are extremely delighted or bitterly disappointed. If their experience was merely average – if the candlelight wasn’t bright enough to warrant excitement or alarm – they remain silent.

As more and more people enter the tunnel, the crowd at the entrance listens:

“Amazing!”

(silence)

“Terrible!”

(more silence)

But silence, in this world, is ambiguous. Did the person choose not to enter the tunnel? Or did they enter and experience something unremarkable – neither good nor bad enough to shout about? This uncertainty distorts what the crowd hears. Even if someone saw the treasure with a brilliant torch, we may never know.

This metaphor captures the essence of recent research on online ratings and reviews. In today’s marketplace, the digital revolution has profoundly altered the epistemic foundations of consumer behavior. Where once information about product quality was rationed, either indirectly, via price signals, or selectively, via...

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