Letter from Brazil: How ‘Lula’s army’ beat the social-media algorithms to pull off a startling win

In October, I flew back home to Rio de Janeiro to vote in the first round of the presidential election – and I was afraid. The Bolsonaros could well return to power. Rio is where Bolsonarism began, and the family’s ties to the militias, gangs of serving and former police officers who took over much of the city’s politics, were known there long before the rest of Brazil paid attention.

On October 4, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro won the first round, with 47.03% of the valid votes. He is the eldest son of Jair Bolsonaro, who was president from 2019 to 2022. A former army captain who speaks fondly of the 1964-1985 dictatorship, Jair Bolsonaro was convicted in 2025 of plotting a coup. Barred from running, he handed his votes to his son.

The incumbent, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, had 45.16%. Since 1989, no candidate who had come second in the first round had gone on to win the runoff.

In the days after the first round, I joined the marches that students had organised. Many of us thought it was already too late to change the result. As we walked through central Rio, the students shouted up at the office windows, asking the people inside...

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