India’s data credibility problem – and why that matters

Eighty-two persons died in the stampede during the Maha Kumbh pilgrimage in Uttar Pradesh’s Prayagraj in January – not 37 as the government claimed, the BBC reported on Tuesday.

This was not the first time the media has claimed that the actual toll could be much higher than the figure that had been announced.

The findings, if accurate, would reinforce concerns about a trend of data published by the Indian government that seems to be false or erroneous.

For instance, on May 7, data published by the civil registration system revealed that India had recorded at least 37.4 lakh excess deaths in 2020 and 2021 compared to 2018 and 2019, the two years preceding the Covid-19 pandemic.

Excess deaths refers to the difference between the total number of deaths during a pandemic or a natural disaster compared to the number of deaths that would have been expected under normal conditions.

The Opposition cited this data to allege that the Narendra Modi government “systematically underreported” Covid-19 deaths.

While the Indian government claimed 5.3 lakh people died of Covid-19 till date, this would put the real toll seven times higher.

Similar questions have also been asked on the economic front for several years. In March 2024, former Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian said that the government’s gross domestic product growth numbers did not add up and were “mystifying”.

However, the concern is not just...

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