How Trump could hurt India’s ability to forecast the monsoon

In late February, the United States administration, led by President Donald Trump, laid off around 800 workers from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the country’s primary climate and weather forecasting body.

Among those watching the move with concern was Raghu Murtugudde, an earth scientist and a retired professor of the Indian Institute of Technology, Mumbai, as well as emeritus professor of the University of Maryland.

Murtugudde had a particular interest in understanding how warming temperatures are impacting the Indian Ocean and the annual monsoon rainfall dependent on it. For this, he often relied on data generated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

“India is nowhere close to the global data that NOAA collects,” said Murtugudde. He explained, for instance, that the NOAA publishes comprehensive data on ocean temperatures across the globe, as well as salinity and sea levels.

This information is crucial not just for his research, Murtugudde said – it underpins most meteorological calculations in India, including the forecast of the monsoon.

“While making longer term forecasts for monsoons, we have to take into account the ocean and its parameters, because they control the atmosphere,” he said.

The monsoon is the single-most important weather phenomenon affecting the Indian subcontinent. Accurate forecasts are crucial for farming decisions...

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