How a ‘super El Niño’ could make India’s monsoon drier – yet more dangerous

India is currently in the middle of its summer monsoon, but this year’s rainfall presents an interesting paradox. Much of the country has received less rain than usual so far, yet has still been hit by severe floods and landslides. In Kerala, for example, devastating floods occurred despite the overall monsoon rainfall remaining well below average.

A weaker monsoon does not necessarily mean an absence of extreme rainfall. Rainfall can be highly uneven, with long dry spells broken by intense cloudbursts that cause flooding and landslides. This year’s experience in Kerala illustrates the apparent contradiction: a season that is dry overall can still produce devastating rainfall.

Amid this highly uneven monsoon, attention is also turning to something happening thousands of kilometres away in the tropical Pacific Ocean: El Niño.

It is well established that El Niño years, when certain parts of the Pacific are warmer than usual, are often associated with weaker Indian monsoon rainfall. Meanwhile La Niña – the opposite state to El Niño – tends to favour wetter conditions. This year, El Niño conditions have developed rapidly in the Pacific, with forecasts suggesting it could become exceptionally strong.

A super-strong El Niño could have important implications for hundreds of millions of people across India, particularly later in the...

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