Global warming will increase dengue mortality, says study

Dengue-related mortality could rise by 13% in Pune, Maharashtra, in the near future due to changes in the monsoon from global warming, a study by researchers from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology has found. The study is among the first to do a regional analysis of dengue-related mortality by incorporating the latest set of climate models in its projections.

India is among the world’s dengue hotspots, reporting between 1,90,000 and 2,89,000 cases annually since 2021, according to data from the National Centre for Vector Borne Disease Control. Cases of dengue begin to rise at the onset of monsoon season, when the conditions for the spread of the disease are apt.

The study modelled future instances of dengue mortality in the city of Pune. Dengue mortality is projected to rise even in low emission scenarios where global warming is limited to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels. As per the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, global warming has already reached 1.1 degrees above pre-industrial levels. In the near term, dengue mortality will increase by 12%-13% by 2040 in the city “regardless of emissions pathways”, says the study.

High emissions scenarios that result in surface temperatures above 1.5 degrees celsius could push dengue-related mortalities 23% to 40% higher by the...

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