Opinion: Modi 3.0 Is Leaving Nothing To Chance With Southeast Asia

As India steps into its third term under Prime Minister Narendra Modi's administration, Southeast Asia has emerged as a central focus of its foreign policy. The region plays a crucial role in the Indo-Pacific theatre and has become pivotal to India's strategic, economic, and diplomatic interests.

Recent high-level engagements, such as Modi's visit to Singapore and Brunei in early September, External Affairs Minister Jaishankar's articulation of India's stance on the South China Sea, and the visits of Vietnamese and Malaysian Prime Ministers to India, signal a continuity in the strategic significance of Southeast Asia to India's foreign policy vision.

'Look East' To 'Act East'

The central government's "Act East Policy," an evolution from the previous "Look East Policy," signifies a more proactive engagement with Southeast Asian nations. Under Modi, this policy has become a cornerstone of India's Indo-Pacific strategy, which promotes a free, open, inclusive, and rules-based order.

The region's strategic importance is underscored by its geographical proximity to India and its role as a gateway to the South China Sea, a vital maritime corridor for global trade. Southeast Asia is a crucial part of the Indo-Pacific's geopolitical framework, and India's growing relationship with the region is seen as a counterbalance to China's expanding and often predatory influence. In Modi 3.0, India aims to solidify its position as a reliable partner in the Indo-Pacific region, with Southeast Asia being a crucial element of this strategy.

New Delhi has placed particular emphasis on fostering closer ties with ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) member states. Trade between India and ASEAN has grown steadily in recent years, with bilateral trade exceeding $100 billion in 2023. In addition to economic cooperation, India's strategic interests in the region have also deepened.

Singapore, Brunei, Vietnam

In Singapore, Modi's talks with newly elected Prime Minister Lawrence Wong resulted in substantive agreements, particularly in the semiconductor sector in addition to health, skilling, and digital security. The "India-Singapore Semiconductor Ecosystem Partnership" inked during the visit, aims to facilitate the entry of Singaporean companies into India. This partnership is integral to New Delhi's ambitions to become a global semiconductor hub, leveraging complementary strengths to build resilience in the global chip supply chain. Parallelly, Modi's visit to Brunei, a strategically located nation in the South China Sea, marked a key moment in India's Act East Policy and Indo-Pacific vision. It was the first visit by an Indian Prime Minister and coincided with the 40th anniversary of diplomatic relations between the two countries.

In Modi 3.0, Vietnam has emerged as one of India's most important Southeast Asian partners. The two countries share concerns over China's growing assertiveness in the South China Sea, where both India and Vietnam have vested interests in oil exploration and freedom of navigation. Discussions on defence cooperation, trade, and energy security marked the visit of Vietnamese Prime Minister Phạm Minh Chính to India. Vietnam is a linchpin in India's Act East Policy and Indo-Pacific strategy, strengthening their naval ties and defence collaboration. India and Vietnam have signed several agreements on defence, maritime security, and energy and economic cooperation. Both countries are committed to upholding international law in the South China Sea, further aligning their strategic interests. The bilateral relationship has also expanded into renewable energy, IT, and infrastructure development, with India playing a significant role in Vietnam's development plans.

Resetting Ties With Malaysia

Similarly, the visit of Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim to India highlighted a much-needed reset in bilateral ties following a dip in relations before 2022. Malaysia's importance to India stems from its strategic location along vital maritime routes in the Indo-Pacific and its role as a significant trading partner. During Anwar's visit, the two leaders discussed enhancing economic cooperation, particularly in technology, renewable energy, and digital connectivity. Malaysia's support for India's Act East Policy and its role in ASEAN make it a valuable partner for India as it seeks to expand its presence in Southeast Asia.

The South China Sea Question

Finally, India's position on the South China Sea has evolved significantly over the years, shifting from a cautious, neutral stance to one that has now clearly articulated its support for the Philippines' sovereign maritime territorial claims, freedom of navigation and maritime resource exploitation, in line with international law. This aligns India with Southeast Asian nations against unilateral actions by China, while also serving India's strategic interests by ensuring freedom of navigation and bolstering regional security. India's nuanced stance, informed by its own territorial tensions with China on its northern land border, underscores its intent to deter unilateral and unlawful advances.

Modi 3.0 marks a significant evolution in India's engagement with Southeast Asia, driven by geopolitical imperatives and economic interests. The Modi administration has steadily deepened the extent and scope of its ties with Southeast Asian countries, and his third consecutive tenure in office looks poised to build on the gains of the last ten years. 

(Harsh V. Pant is Vice President – Studies and Foreign Policy, at Observer Research Foundation, and Professor of International Relations at King's College London. Pratnashree Basu is an Associate Fellow - Indo-Pacific, at Observer Research Foundation.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author