Myanmar is on the brink. Can it be saved from splintering?

The Myanmar military government is facing wars on multiple fronts.

Since October last year, “coordinated” attacks against junta troops were launched by the three most effective ethnic armed groups – the Arakan Army, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army – in Shan State, along the border with China.

Ethnic groups such as the Kachin Independence Army and the Karen National Liberation Army have for long been engaged in armed conflicts with the junta along Myanmar’s borders with Thailand.

The Arakan Army separately mounted military offensives in the Rakhine State and the Chin State, taking control of vast tracts of territory and key townships.

Subsequently, other militia groups and People’s Defence Forces joined in as the armed conflict expanded. Since April this year, the Rohingya have been caught in the crossfire.

The junta, which overthrew a democratically-elected government in 2021, has been steadily losing ground with some of the biggest reverses in the last few months.

That is despite the influence of China, which has sought to balance the junta and the rebel forces. China’s objective is to protect its economic investments in infrastructure projects.

Meanwhile, US involvement in Myanmar has been minimal, limited to voicing support for pro-democracy forces and continuing with a sanctions regime in the embattled country.

There have been reports of widespread human rights abuses and targeting...

Read more