Ethiopia is slipping into a war again that could expand to more countries

Four years after a fragile ceasefire ended widespread conflict in Ethiopia, the region is again slipping back into full-out war.

On September 23, 2026, advancing soldiers of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front seized government positions in northern Ethiopia.

It followed the announcement of a new alliance of seven armed movements in opposition to the Ethiopian government and deteriorating relations between the country and neighboring Eritrea, which it accuses of supporting the new alliance.

As an expert on conflict in the Horn of Africa and Ethiopian national security, I know the spiraling conditions now have been long in the making.

The November 2022 Pretoria Cessation of Hostilities Agreement ended immediate fighting between Ethiopia and Tigrayan rebels, but it did not constitute a comprehensive peace settlement. Crucially, it was never followed by wider political negotiations to address the root causes of the war. The concern now is that the conflicts will intersect with the civil war in neighboring Sudan, causing a complicated, regionwide conflagration.

How has the conflict escalated?

The September 23 ground offensive by the TPLF drew global attention to the situation in Ethiopia. But in reality, the ratcheting up of tensions between the federal government in Addis Ababa and the TPLF has been going on for months.

Throughout August and September, the region of Tigray – Ethiopia’s northernmost constituent state, with an estimated population of...

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