El Niño likely to intensify as India’s monsoon advances slowly

Global meteorological agencies have confirmed El Niño is here. In India, El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are expected to intensify as the southwest monsoon progresses, confirms the India Meteorological Department’s June bulletin. Experts say the developing El Niño should be treated as a serious climate risk and an early warning, urging timely planning and preparedness rather than alarm.

The World Meteorological Organization, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Copernicus Climate Change Service, and the India Meteorological Department and are converging on the increasing likelihood of the El Niño event developing to a moderate to strong event in the next few months.

“There was a high likelihood of El Niño developing during June-August 2026, with probabilities around 80%. The probability of El Niño conditions continuing through August to November is near or above 90%,” says Barbara Tapia Cortes, World Meteorological Organization Technical Coordinator (Services).

Recent updates about a developing El Niño have triggered a wave of headlines warning of droughts, heatwaves and monsoon disruptions, sparking concerns globally. However, while El Niño has been confirmed and is likely to strengthen further, there is still considerable uncertainty about its intensity and impacts on India.

Cortes explains, “The impacts depend on the event’s intensity, duration, timing and interaction with other climate drivers.”

For India, where agriculture, water resources, and urban water supplies...

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