As the US joins Israel’s bombing of Iran, what is the endgame?

On Sunday, the United States joined Israel’s campaign to bomb Iran that had begun on June 13. It is likely that the American goal is limited to destroying Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities and compelling Teheran to commit to stop enriching nuclear materials to weapons-grade levels – though with Donald Trump, it is difficult to be certain.

Israel’s goals are largely in congruence with those of the US but they go a step further: regime change. And that is likely to turn out to be a fantasy.

For one, the Iranian system is less brittle than Saddam Hussein’s in Iraq was in 2003. Bombing alone will not cause the Iranian regime to fall.

The exhortation of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Iranians last week to rebel against their rulers faces the classic dilemma before a regime-change strategy.

For mass uprisings to take place and succeed, protests must start in cities. However, Israel has no option but to bomb Iranian cities, both because of their strategic and symbolic value as well as to respond to Iranian bombings of Israeli cities – which would further turn Iranian citizens against Israel.

Furthermore, unlike in Iraq and Afghanistan, the self-styled liberators seem to lack a plan for replacing the current Iranian regime....

Read more