Analysis: Donald Trump Casts Long Shadow On COP29 Summit

The re-election of Donald Trump in the US has cast a shadow on climate talks at the COP29 (Conference of the Parties) in Baku, with the with the President-elect pledging to withdraw from the landmark Paris climate agreement.

When Trump was elected in 2016, he had taken the US out of the Paris Agreement. Four years later, it was rectified by Joe Biden.

The ongoing COP29, the annual climate conference, began in Baku, Azerbaijan on Monday (November 11) amid worries of the US pulling out of the Paris climate agreement for the second time. The conference is focusing on strategies for the phased reduction of fossil fuels and climate aid to developing (poorer) nations.

At Copenhagen in 2009, developed countries made a commitment to mobilise $100 billion annually to help developing countries address climate-related challenges and build greener economies.

The Paris pact reaffirmed the 2009 commitment, but only $83.3billion was raised as of 2020. The target was finally met in 2023. All 196 countries, including the US, had signed the Paris Agreement in 2015 and had made non-binding pledges to reduce their earth warming pollution.

However, there are no penalties for not adhering to the agreement.

At the Baku summit, delegates are deciding on a 10-fold increase in financial flows - from the current $100 billion each year that developed countries pledged to raise, to at least a trillion dollars a year from 2026.

Fear Of Exit

At Baku, Washington's top climate envoy John Podesta acknowledged the next US administration would "try and take a U-turn" on climate action, but said that US cities, states and individual citizens would pick up the slack. "While the United States federal government under Donald Trump may put climate change action on the back burner, the work to contain climate change is going to continue in the United States with commitment and passion and belief," he said, according to AFP.

"The fight is bigger than one election, one political cycle in one country," he added.

Regardless of assurances, Trump believes that climate change is a 'hoax' and may go ahead with his plans quicker and without much opposition. He may even take the US out of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.

When the previous Trump government walked out of the Paris Agreement, it was just a little over a year old.

The exit had provoked strong international reactions and fears that other countries may also go the US way.

The US rejoined the Paris Agreement under Joe Biden in 2021 and then announced that by the year 2030, America would cut its emissions by half from 2005 levels.

If Trump goes ahead with his campaign promises, it will deal a severe blow to the entire framework for the annual global climate negotiations, causing lasting damage to efforts to limit global warming.

The countries that opted for the Paris Agreement are expected to furnish new plans by mid-February 2025. But if the world's biggest economy doesn't submit its plans, then it definitely sends a wrong signal to detractors of stringent climate action in China, India or Europe. The negative elements in these countries will force their governments to water down efforts towards climate ambition and continue with the dependence on fossil fuels.  

US' withdrawal from climate change panels would prevent the country from participating in international discussions about the expansion of clean energy. This would give China an opportunity to elbow out America on solar panels, electric vehicles and other green technologies.

The Trump administration's climate strategy will be clearly known only after the inauguration of the new President on January 20.

Impact On Baku Summit

2024 has been the warmest year on record. According to the EU's (European Union) climate service, this is also the first time that global warming has exceeded 1.5 degrees C above pre-industrial levels.

In simple terms, the long-term temperature increase must be limited to below 1.5 degrees to avoid the devastating impact of climate change.

India, too, has had its share of extreme weather events, from intense rainfall to heatwaves, in 2024. The latest India Climate Report 2024 published on November 8 reveals that the country faced extreme weather events on 93% of the days in the first nine months of this year (from January 1 to September 30, 2024). This means extreme events occurred on 255 out of a total 274 days, leaving 3,200 people dead, affecting 3.2 million hectares of crops, destroying 2,35,862 houses and buildings, and killing 9,457 livestock across the country.

In the last two conferences, delegates had agreed to set up a Loss and Damage Fund to help countries deal with extreme weather events. The Baku summit aims to push further discussions.

At climate meetings in the run-up to Baku, developed nations have already said they are not ready to bear the cost and are asking to widen the donor base to include other rich countries like Singapore, China and the UAE.

Any US decision will influence other developed nations like Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Canada, the UK and the EU to rethink their stance. After the US exit during Trump's first term, these countries had decreased their share of climate finance. Even after Biden reversed Trump's move in 2021, the US did not contribute a major share of its financial pledges from 2017 to 2021.

This constrained the developed nations' mission to raise $100 billion annually to fund climate goals for developing countries.

This time around the fear is that the US may default on its $3 billion pledge to the UN's Green Climate Fund. The US has been a defaulter under other Presidents like Obama and Biden, but didn't opt out of the negotiations. 

The US is the second biggest emitter after China and the largest contributor to historical emissions. Its role and active participation are instrumental in not only mobilising finances for climate change but also in slashing emissions. Setting climate targets will be pointless without the US on board.