Washington Gets A Rude Jolt: How Pakistan Kept US Guessing Its Nuke Plans

Pakistan has a knack of pulling the rabbit out of the hat every once in while - one that leaves the United States perplexed and perturbed time and again. But before the US can delve into the method behind the trick, Washington, which has reasons for serious concern, often finds itself quickly distracted by one of the many other pressing problems it faces globally. Islamabad knows this, and so, it makes its move slowly, quite like the hours hand of the clock, knowing fully well that the watchful eyes are often focusing on the routinely-ticking seconds hand.

Pakistan has only one rabbit - the nuclear bomb - which it pulls out of the bag every time Islamabad is either held accountable for its actions, or finds itself in the diplomatic corner with no way out.

With time, that rabbit has grown, both in number and in range. As long as it only bothered the neighbours, it wasn't a priority for Washington. But the latest reports to emerge from Pakistan has left the United States deeply troubled.

As per reports, Pakistan is working on the latest version of its Shaheen missile - Shaheen-III - which will be capable of striking the United States, should the need arise. This move has jolted Washington out of its slumber.

The original stated purpose of the Shaheen-III missile was to be able to strike India's naval facilities in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands with an estimated range of 2,750 km, but that was possible only if the launch pads were right on the International Border with India, on Pakistan's south eastern-most region. To change that, Rawalpindi, home to the Pak Army headquarters, is seeking help to extend the range.

A similar effort is also being made by Rawalpindi to increase the range of its other long-range missile Ababeel, which can currently strike at a distance up to 2,000 km.

China, which is the reason why Pakistan was able to have its nuclear programme to begin with, has reportedly been helping Rawalpindi reach this goal. Confirming the news, US Deputy National Security Adviser Jonathan Finer said recently that "Pakistan is working on its long-range missiles and may soon have the capability to strike targets well beyond South Asia, including in the United States".

Speaking at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace last week, Mr Finer noted that "it is hard for us to see Pakistan's actions as anything other than an emerging threat to the United States."

This is not not just a concern for the US, but for Israel too. While Andaman and Nicobar is Pakistan's focus in the east, if it turns its focus westward, it already has the range to strike US naval assets in east Africa, in Somalia's Mogadishu and Djibouti. It can also strike the US base in Bahrain, in the Persian Gulf. Moving northwest, the range of these missiles, even if extended marginally, will be able to strike Israel.

US is also aware of the turmoil in Pakistan and the fact that Pakistan has the world's largest number of terrorist groups. There is always a threat of such technology falling in the wrong hands or getting transferred to regimes hostile towards the US and Israel.

LATEST SANCTIONS

As recently as last week, the US sanctioned four Pakistani entities, including the state-owned flagship aerospace and defence agency - National Development Complex or NDC - on charges related to its long-range ballistic missile program.

State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said four Pakistani firms were slapped with sanctions under an executive order that "targets proliferators of weapons of mass destruction and their means of delivery."

Apart from NDC, the three other entities sanctioned by the US are Akhtar and Sons Private Limited, Affiliates International, and Rockside Enterprises. All three are based in Karachi, while the NDC is located in Islamabad. According to the US State Department, these companies worked with the NDC to acquire equipment related to the long-range ballistic missile program.

A statement issued by the US State Department last week said "The United States holds NDC responsible for Pakistan's development of ballistic missiles, including the Shaheen-series ballistic missiles." It noted that NDC and the three other entities worked to acquire several items, including special vehicle chassis intended to be used as launch support equipment for ballistic missiles, besides acquiring missile testing equipment.

PAKISTAN'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM - A BRIEF HISTORY

On May 28, 1998, two weeks after India carried out its nuclear test in Pokhran, Pakistan carried out its nuke test deep in the desert-region of Balochistan. Bill Clinton, the US President at the time, imposed sanctions on both countries. From there on India and Pakistan took divergent routes to shape its nuclear legacy. While India established itself as a responsible nuclear power, Pakistan has been mired in multiple acts of proliferation and repeated rounds of sanctions.

From the early 90s, China has been actively involved in ensuring Pakistan has a nuclear weapons program, regardless of the risks involved. In the process, Beijing too has been sanctioned for providing assistance and technology to Islamabad and Rawalpindi.

In June, 1991, Washington held Beijing accountable for exporting sensitive missile technology to Islamabad and imposed sanctions on China. These sanctions were lifted nearly a year later, when Beijing, which was already a nuclear weapons state, agreed to abide by the international rules of the Missile Technology Control Regime or MTCR, though till date, China has not officially joined the MTCR.

Pakistan and China lay low for a while, and again, in 1993, Washington caught Beijing exporting sensitive missile tech to Islamabad. The sanctions were re-imposed, but did not prove to be too effective. Since then, China and Pakistan steadily increased cooperation on missile technology and delivery systems, disregarding the international rules stated in the MTCR.

Even after Pakistan tested the N-bomb in 1998, US sanctions proved to be effective only temporarily, as Washington lifted those sanctions soon after the 9/11 terror attack as it needed Islamabad on its side for the 'war on terror' in Afghanistan.

In another incident which highlights how China helped Pakistan with sensitive technology while enhancing its own, in August 1998, Pakistan managed to get its hands on a US-made Tomahawk missile. Two Tomahawk missiles, considered the latest technology of the time, turned out to be defective. They were a part of a barrage of 75 missiles fired by the US targeting terrorist hideouts in Afghanistan.

Pakistan secretly shipped the Tomahawk missile to Beijing, where the technology was deciphered and replicated by China. From that new technology China developed its then-latest cruise missile - DH-10. Beijing later sold these missiles back to Islamabad, where they were renamed as the Babur missile, which is nuclear-capable.

Pakistan has, since the start, found itself being caught red-handed in aiding nuclear proliferation. Islamabad has long been accused of secretly exporting sensitive nuclear weapons technology through its network of rouge elements. The most infamous of them all being when disgraced Pakistani scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan was found illegally selling nuke-related technology to North Korea, Iran, Iraq, and Libya. It left Pakistan red-faced globally and the US shut down those operations in 2004. But two decades later, North Korea and Iran continue to get their supply of equipment and sensitive technology from nefarious underground networks that experts believe stem from Pakistan - some believe with China's blessings.