Sri Lanka's New President And What Is At Stake For India

Sri Lanka has made history by voting leftist Anura Kumara Dissanayake to power. The people rejected all the known and tested political leaders and dynasts - Rajapaksa, Wickremesinghe and Premadasa - who, according to them, contributed to the island nation's economic collapse.

The Election Commission declared AKD, as Dissanayake is popularly known, as the winner after the second round of counting. Dissanayake won 5.7 million (42.3%) votes after two rounds of counting in the nation's first-ever second preference vote count - defeating Sajith Premadasa of the SJB (Samagi Jana Balawegaya), who got 4.5 million (32.8%). It was a big defeat for incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe, who fought as an independent and was a distant third with 17.3% votes. Namal Rajapaksa, the son of former President Mahinda Rajapaksa, managed only 2.4% of the total votes.

It is a robust victory for Dissanayake, the leader of the Marxist JVP (Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna) and also the broader front NPP (National Peoples Power), which had won just over 3% of votes in the previous presidential election in 2019. It also reflects the extent of Sri Lankans' distrust of the old regime. 

Soon after his win, Dissanayake wrote on X: "This achievement is not the result of any single person's work, but the collective effort of hundreds of thousands of you. Your commitment has brought us this far, and for that, I am deeply grateful. This victory belongs to all of us."

Pragmatic leader

An analysis of Dissanayake's political career reveals that he is a pragmatic leader who knows how to deal with global political realities despite his ideological moorings rooted in Marxism.

Dissanayake's political activism began when he was a university leader in the early 1990s, and it brought him close to the JVP (Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna), a left-wing Marxist-Leninist party mainly consisting of Sinhalese rural youth and known for its armed uprisings in 1971 and 1987-89. It is interesting to note that JVP's origins are linked to a faction within the Communist Party of Sri Lanka (CPSL) in the 1960s, mostly in its pro-China bloc.

However, ground-level electoral politics forced JVP to temper its stand, which had a positive impact on leaders like Dissanayake, who became the party's national organiser in 1997. In 2000, he became an MP. His elevation as JVP chief came after a long wait, in 2014. Dissanayake's flexibility and willingness to learn enabled him to grasp Sri Lanka's economic issues and relate to the rural and working-class citizens, especially through the country's worst economic crises in the late 2010s and early 2020s. His brief stint as Agriculture Minister also helped him connect with Sri Lanka's rural agricultural sector, setting him apart from the political elite.

Incandescent anger against the political elite over an economic mess saw Sri Lankans overthrow the Rajapaksa family in 2022. To voters fed up with steep inflation, food, fuel and medicine shortages and swelling debt, Dissanayake's anti-corruption stance and promise of political reforms appealed to the masses, especially the youth.

The victory will be overwhelming both for Dissanayake and JVP. This is their first time in power, and the lack of experience could be a worry domestically as well as internationally.

India is closely observing the developments in its neighbourhood, just a couple of hours away by speed boat from its southern tip Rameswaram. So is China, which is striving to increase its influence over the island nation.

Sri Lanka has undeniably moved towards China in the past 15 years, handing many lucrative projects to the country. Among other projects, China snagged one to develop an airport in Colombo. Earlier, the strategically important Hambantota Port, situated along the world's busiest shipping lane linking Asia and Europe was given to China, which gave it an upper hand in the region.

India's stakes
 
India has splurged millions of dollars in the form of aid and loans to ensure stability in Sri Lanka, its closest neighbour.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated Dissanayake on his victory and said he looks forward to working closely with him to further strengthen the Indo-Lanka multifaceted cooperation.

In his response on Monday (Sept 23), Dissanayake thanked PM Modi for his 'kind' words and support and said he shared his commitment to strengthening ties.

Historically, JVP has been anti-India, especially during the late 1980s, when the party held agitations against Indian imports, including medicines and drugs.

India will also be concerned about the Tamil population in Sri Lanka, as Dissanayake's party has had a complex and antagonistic relationship with Tamil nationalism and LTTE. The JVP opposed the Indo-Sri Lanka Peace Accord in 1987, and did not support the implementation of the 13th amendment of the Sri Lankan Constitution, which delegates powers to the country's Tamil minority.

A majority of Tamils did not vote for Dissanayake, given what they believe is the apathy of his alliance NPP towards Tamils' political demands. Whether Dissanayake, after taking office, will reach out to the country's Tamil minority will be watched.

Experts believe that the rigid stance may not hold up against the strategic geopolitical realities. Dissanayake displayed his eagerness to engage with India as early as February 2024 and met with Foreign Minister S Jaishankar and National Security Adviser Ajit Doval.

Sri Lankans have reposed their faith in Dissanayake as their last hope. They are yet to experience his rule or his policies. His recent speeches do suggest a more nuanced approach, moderating his Left-leaning position.          

Dissanayake has a lot on his plate on the domestic front, and fixing the economy will be his priority. He is expected to dissolve parliament and call parliamentary elections soon. Some of his public statements and decisions didn't seem to favour India's interests in the recent past.

India needs to use its diplomatic channels to ensure that Indian investments like the wind power project in the northern part of Sri Lanka are not jeopardised. Given the project's strategic location in northern Sri Lanka, any setback could mean a Chinese company or its proxy taking over, which would be a concern given the significance of the region and the presence of the Tamil minority.