US election: Surveys show Kamala Harris leads in the race but margins are tight
There are significant variations in support among different groups as well as a large gender gap with women much more likely to vote for her than men.
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Poll data shows that Kamala Harris now leads Donald Trump in the US presidential election campaign. She has an average vote intention score of 48.2%, compared with Trump’s 45.8%, according to FiveThirtyEight, a website that looks at a range of polls.
She leads in the race, although the margins are still tight. A poll of polls like this one is likely to be more accurate than a single one, giving a much better indication of any trends.
Many factors are at work when people decide how to vote, but four things really matter. These are voter evaluations of the candidates; their perceptions of the major issues; identifying with the Democratic or Republican parties, or being independents; and whether they think of themselves as liberals, conservatives or moderates.
To look closely at these factors we can examine the details of an Economist/YouGov survey of the US electorate completed on September 17. The survey puts Harris on 49%, with Trump on 45% in voting intentions.
There are significant variations in support among different groups and there is a large gender gap with women much more likely to vote for Harris than men. In addition, white people favour Trump, whereas Hispanic and black people lean heavily towards Harris. Harris is also strongly supported by...
