Pollster Nate Silver says people should be making contingency plans for Trump win
Silver's model correctly predicted the results of the 2008, 2012 and the 2020 elections but about 2024, he said it's still a "toss-up". According to his 2024 model, Harris retains a modest lead in the probability of winning the election and the popular vote, as well as a 63 percent probability of winning swing state Michigan and a 57 percent chance of taking the crucial state of Pennsylvania.
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Silver's model correctly predicted the results of the 2008, 2012 and the 2020 elections but about 2024, he said it's still a "toss-up". According to his 2024 model, Harris retains a modest lead in the probability of winning the election and the popular vote, as well as a 63 percent probability of winning swing state Michigan and a 57 percent chance of taking the crucial state of Pennsylvania. 
